Forecasting

thinking Why forecast? Features Common to all Forecasts Conditions in the away will continue in the future R atomic number 18ly perfect Forecasts for groups tend to be to a greater extent accurate than forecasts for individuals Forecast accuracy declines as meter persuasion increases Elements of a Good Forecast Timely Accurate good (should work consistently) Forecast expressed in meaningful units Communicated in writing Simple to picture and use Steps in Forecasting Process Determine decision of the forecast put down out a time horizon Select foretell technique Gather and test the appropriate data have the forecast Monitor the forecast Types of Forecasts Qualitative o ruling and opinion o Sales force o Consumer surveys o Delphi technique Quantitative o Regression and correlational statistics (associative) o Time series Forecasts Based on Time concomitant publication Data What is Time serial publication? Components (behavior) of Time Series data o drive o Cycle o Seasonal o Irregular o Random variations Naïve Methods Naïve Forecast uses a single previous value of a time series as the basis of a forecast.

[pic] Techniques for Averaging What is the purpose of averaging? Common A veraging Techniques o pitiabl! e Averages o exponential smoothing Moving Average [pic] Exponential Smoothing [pic] Techniques for Trend Linear Trend Equation [pic] [pic] Curvilinear Trend Equation [pic] [pic] Techniques for Seasonality What is seasonality? What are seasonal relatives or indexes? How seasonal indexes are...If you want to get a wide-eyed essay, order it on our website: OrderCustomPaper.com

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